I was reviewing the trade reports from last week regarding the $340 million B2B deal with Chinese importers. While the Ministry of Trade is celebrating a record $11.2 billion in total export earnings for the 2025/26 fiscal year, the data reveals a structural vulnerability that we cannot ignore.

Gold and coffee still account for nearly 80% of our total earnings. As an analyst, I find this lack of diversification alarming. It is one thing to hit a target of $13.4 billion for next year, but quite another to achieve it sustainably. We are also seeing domestic friction; the new mandate requiring contract farming payments to be routed through the ECX is causing unnecessary logistical confusion for exporters.

Furthermore, the 'record' coffee earnings of $3.1 billion don't reflect the reality for smallholders in regions like Sidama. High border prices mean nothing if the farm-gate ledger is ignored and growers switch to khat because it offers better liquidity. We need to focus on stabilizing farmer income and improving quality infrastructure rather than just chasing nominal growth figures to please the central bank.